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Housing market update: boom, bust or back to a "new" normal?

May 31, 2022

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If you're scratching your head over the current property market, you're not alone.

Even top industry experts are doing so, as we all try to unravel the state of the property market and the overall economy.

Add newly rising cash interest rates, a new government and a global pandemic that persists in hanging around the sidelines, and it's hardly surprising this unique situation has us all wondering what's next.

So, the Listing Loop team decided to unravel some yarns that have buyers, sellers and investors knitting themselves into knots.

Read on to find out more.

Yarn 1: House values are plummeting

No, not really.

House values across the board are slowing down but they're not plummeting and they're not expected to do so anytime soon, if at all.

Also, in some areas, house values are recording positive rather than negative growth.

So we encourage you to take data and statistics into perspective, especially when compared to the "normal" pre-pandemic market.

Property Update's Michael Yardney explained it well when he said recently that "it must be remembered that the last peak for our property markets was in 2017 and in many locations housing prices remain stagnant over a subsequent couple of years, which means that average price growth was unexceptional over the long term, averaging out at around 5% per annum over the last five years."

If that's not putting the current property market into perspective, we don't know what is!

Case in point: Sydney's housing values have just experienced their third consecutive month-on-month decline, down 0.2%, while Melbourne values have slowed to a negative -0.04% figure, according to CoreLogic's Home Value Index this month.

Hobart also recorded a negative monthly change (-0.3%); however, this was the Apple Isle city’s first monthly fall in 22 months.

Meanwhile, house values in Australia's other capital cities are strolling along quite nicely, thank you very much.

Adelaide is leading the capital gains path, enjoying a 1.9% growth in April, followed by Brisbane (1.7%), Canberra (1.3%) and Perth (1.1%).

Regional Australia has also profited well from buyers wanting to escape to the country recently.

Rural areas continue to roll along fairly well with housing values up 1.4% in April across the combined regionals index, compared with a 0.3% gain across the combined capitals, according to CoreLogic.

We're not going to say that overall housing values in capital cities or regional areas are jumping ahead as they were even six months ago.

But they're not doing too badly either - and more importantly, they're steadily switching back to where they should be.

Yarn 2: Interest rates are rising

Yes, they are, but in a sense, this is a good thing and again, we're referring to regular economic and property market normality as opposed to the hot heat un-normality of the past few years.

For a start, this month's cash rate interest hike to 0.35% comes after an 18-month 0.1% cash rate.

The change was also our one and only interest rate hike in a decade and was due to rising inflation and employment figures, both of which equal a much more positive economy for the country.

Mortgage holders, investors and first-home buyers - yes, this interest rate change isn't great for you especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised even industry experts last month with its jump of 25 basis points.

It's certainly a very good time to check with your current lender or broker about how they can help you with your loan.

However, first-home buyers can still find a loan with about a 2%-2.5% interest rate.

Also, strong employment rates at least give you a good chance of enjoying work and in turn, paying off your mortgage.

Finally, much depends on when and how the RBA will change interest rates from now on in.

Property Market Update June 2022
Now is a good time to check with your current lender or broker about how they can help you with your loan

Yarn 3: I want to buy but I can't find anything to buy - or can I?

Aah yes, we're hearing this line a lot lately, along with the point that you ain't willing to spend what the seller wants you to - and that's even if you have that high price in your pocket.

Buyers are still managing fairly well with weekend-by-weekend auction activity and clearance rates looking positive, says CoreLogic.

The industry expert said the past week was the busiest auction period since the pre-Easter spike, with auction activity across the combined capital cities rebounding sharply after a federal election slump and a downward five-week trend before that.

However, estimated sale settlements have fallen since the December quarter of last year.

Indeed, according to CoreLogic, the quarterly number of national home sales is now estimated to be 14% lower than the same time a year ago.

Why?

There are several reasons including the point that while we've enjoyed some extra money in our accounts thanks to closed borders, wages haven't risen in line with property value growth.

As well, the COVID years have taught us all the importance of enjoying where you live so these same buyers are also looking for somewhere very liveable - and that includes good neighbours and nearby amenities.

What does this leave us with?

Cautious buyers with lessening confidence who would like to buy but can't find a price or home to suit their budget.

We're here to help

It's a lot to take in, isn't it?

But our bottom line for you is to take it all in and not just part of it, one side of it, or only the headlines.

Don't panic and run for cover but rather, do your research.

Boring as it can be, research is your best friend when buying, selling, investing or refinancing.

Your next best friend of course is Listing Loop, where we can give you a better chance of locking down a new place.

How?

Our off-market and pre-market marketplace give you VIP access to properties so you can get in first.

So, if you're not a member yet, sign up at Listing Loop, download our app or get in touch with us here.


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